START Critic Recommends START I Verification Regime
Several START critics have written about their concerns over the verification regime in the new treaty. For instance, Paula DeSutter, former assistant secretary for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation at the State Department discussed the weaker verifications regime in new START at the Heritage Foundation. Russia will take advantage of the weaknesses, and the consequences of Russia trying to get around verification will put the U.S. in danger.
Greg Randolph Lawson writes about the issue at Atlantic Community, a non-partisan and non-profit foreign policy organization. He suggests, among other things, that the U.S. Senate should reauthorize START I, with its more effective verification regime, and limits on nuclear weapons established by the 2002 SORT Treaty. An excerpt:
“The admittedly conservative Heritage Foundation found a series of problems with the new verification mechanisms including the mothballing of exchange of telemetry data and a reduction in the number of inspections.
“While it is true that in the absence of a new START Treaty, there would be no mechanism in place to exchange any information about what nuclear arms and delivery systems are deployed between Russia and the US; the troublesome lack of a fully effective verification regime, much more so than the hyperbolic fretting about missile defense, is a problem that should not be ignored just to get ‘something’ in place.
“There is good reason to believe that Russia’s reliance on nuclear weapons will increase over time irrespective of this treaty. As Russia’s conventional military projection capabilities potentially decline, it will likely feel a need to compensate with what is still the ultimate equalizer. Indeed, its need for nuclear weapons will probably have less to do with its fears of an encroaching ‘West’ and more to do with an encroaching ‘East,’ as China continues to grow even during a time period where Russia’s demography may not be as sustainable as in the past. If this occurs, a lack of appropriate verification mechanisms could easily open the door to cheating. In turn, this would obviate the intended goal of the treaty in the first place.”
Tags: Greg Randolph Lawson, Russia, START