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Last week, the Czech government collapsed after parliament issued a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek’s center-right administration. The collapse is blamed on the economy and infighting. Holding a rotating European Union presidency, the Czech Republic is halfway through a six-month term and probably will remain in place until the end of the term.

What the collapse means for U.S. missile defense shield plans is unclear. A week before the no-confidence vote, the Czech government “temporarily pulled back” from parliament treaties between the Czech Republic and the U.S. to install missile defense radar. Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said, “This does not mean we would give up on the ratification process. We will return to this issue after talks with the U.S. administration and after the NATO summit in Strasbourg and Kehl.”

The BBC reports that Topolanek said he’ll step down. He and President Barack Obama are scheduled to meet in Prague.

Source: BBC

 
Earlier this month, we blogged about President Barack Obama’s reported offer to Russia to cancel plans to build missile defense shields in Poland and the Czech Republic in exchange for Russia helping the U.S. deal with Iran’s possible nuclear weapons. Despite a New York Times report and lots of news coverage about a “secret letter” Obama sent to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to that effect, the president denied reports of such an offer.

The Czech Republic sees the writing on the wall. Last week, the government “temporarily pulled back” from parliament agreements between the Czech Republic and the U.S. to install missile defense radar. Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said, “This does not mean we would give up on the ratification process. We will return to this issue after talks with the U.S. administration and after the NATO summit in Strasbourg and Kehl.”

But Poland is still holding out hope. On Sunday, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said his country had taken “something of a political risk” when signing an agreement to build a missile defense shield and that the Czechs “patiently wait for the new administration, and we hope we don’t regret our trust in the United States.” (Reuters)

Representative Ellen Tauscher, expected to be announced as the new Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, said the missile system will have to be proven viable before deployment (as one would expect).

During the Bush administration, the U.S. assured Russia that missile shields in Poland and the Czech Republic were for defensive purposes, but Russia has remained doubtful.

(Photo credit: AP/Alik Keplicz)

 
In the event that Poland’s and the Czech Republic’s parliaments don’t ratify agreements signed by the U.S. and the two countries to build missile defense bases, the U.S. will consider alternate installation sites. Missile Defense Agency commander Lt. Gen. Henry Obering didn’t elaborate about specific locations.

Obering stressed the urgency of building the bases. “Most of the intelligence community believes that the Iranians are going to have a capability to threaten certainly all of Europe. In fact, that’s something they believe could happen shortly, within the year…And they can threaten the United States in the next five to six years.”

Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek reportedly said parliament should delay a final decision until President-Elect Barack Obama takes office in January. Target dates for completion of the bases are between 2011 and 2013.

On a related note, the U.S. State Department’s top arms control official said the U.S. is attempting to quell Russia’s concerns about the Polish and Czech missile defense bases. Russia has been critical of these plans, perceiving hostility from the U.S.

John Rood, Under-Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, said the U.S. has sent Russia an offer to allow Russian monitors access to the bases to confirm that installations will not be aimed at Russia.

Hood said he was disappointed by Russia’s threats at retaliation, but the U.S. will not “disengage or something of that nature…Rather, to the contrary, we think it’s just as important as ever to talk to the Russians about their concerns. We don’t think that there’s a legitimate basis to view what we’ve done, our plans, in Poland the Czech Republic as a threat to Russia.”

Will allowing inspections satisfy Russia? Probably not.

(Sources: NTI and State Department)